Talarico with a huge surge in polling, especially among Latinos. But, more importantly among Independents. If Trump’s base is not galvanized in Texas to turn out, then Talarico needs to close only a 2-3 gap (like O’Rourke had) He can do that with independents. BUT, if the base is galvanized against the Dem candidate, you’d need to close a 14+ point gap. That’s unlikely to happen. So he needs to keep threading this needle.